Cagliari vs Juventus: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Sardegna Arena, Cagliari · updated 2026-10-09
Cagliari host Juventus in Serie A on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Sardegna Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Juventus slight favourites at 40%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 31% and expects about 2.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Cagliari 0.93, Juventus 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 35% · both teams to score: 43%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição, 23 · Juventus · RWF · Classic winger
Moneyball Scout picks Francisco Conceição as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 65, defensive 25).
- Accurate crosses: 1.98 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Shots: 2.97 per 90 minutes, better than 73% of wingers
- Dispossessed: 0.74 per 90 minutes, better than 72% of wingers
Cagliari concede only 0.4 goals a match this season (1.73 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a classic winger like Francisco Conceição.
Scout's notes: Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Cagliari | Per match this season | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.4 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 0.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.73 | xG conceded | 0.61 |
| 10.8 | Shots | 17.6 |
| 4.2 | On target | 5.8 |
| 40.8 | Possession % | 56.0 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 8.6 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile goalkeeper · rating 7.35 · 5 apps
- Alessandro Romano midfielder · rating 7.21 · 5 apps
- Juan Rodríguez defender · rating 7.17 · 5 apps
Juventus
- Nico González midfielder · rating 7.40 · 4 apps
- Bremer defender · rating 7.37 · 5 apps
- Douglas Luiz midfielder · rating 7.30 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.