Atalanta vs Venezia: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Monday 12 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo · updated 2026-10-09
Atalanta host Venezia in Serie A on Monday 12 October 2026 at Gewiss Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Atalanta favourites at 48%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 3.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atalanta 1.76, Venezia 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: John Yeboah
John Yeboah, 26 · Venezia · SS · Shadow striker
Moneyball Scout picks John Yeboah as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 41).
- Expected goals: 0.51 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of second strikers
- Shots: 3.31 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of second strikers
- Successful dribbles: 1.65 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of second strikers
Atalanta concede 1.4 goals a match this season (1.82 expected), more than the league's average: the space a shadow striker like John Yeboah lives on.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Dribbler.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Atalanta | Per match this season | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.6 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.60 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 3.4 | On target | 4.4 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 57.2 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 3.2 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.63 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi goalkeeper · rating 7.36 · 5 apps
- Lazar Samardžić midfielder · rating 6.97 · 5 apps
- Charles De Ketelaere forward · rating 6.88 · 5 apps
Venezia
- Gianluca Busio midfielder · rating 7.07 · 4 apps
- Antoine Hainaut midfielder · rating 6.98 · 5 apps
- John Yeboah forward · rating 6.92 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.