Atalanta vs Venezia: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Serie A · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Atalanta host Venezia in the Serie A on Tuesday 13 October 2026. The bookmakers make Atalanta narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 23% and Venezia at 20%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Atalanta -0.75 at 1.84, Venezia at 2.06. The main goals line is 3: over 2.03, under 1.85, which gives over 48%.
Form in numbers
- Venezia create more: 1.60 expected goals a match against 0.93 for Atalanta.
- Atalanta give away less, 1.82 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Atalanta 11.8 (3.4 on target), Venezia 14.0 (4.4 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Atalanta 38.6%, Venezia 51.0%.
| Atalanta | Per match | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.60 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 0.6 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| 38.6 | Pressure share % | 51.0 |
| 12.6 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 3.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Atalanta won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2025 | Atalanta | 0 – 0 | Venezia |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Venezia | 0 – 2 | Atalanta |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
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- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.