Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Preview
La Liga · Sunday 20 September 2026 · 02:00 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the La Liga on Sunday 20 September 2026 (02:00).
Form in numbers
- Real Madrid create more: 2.41 expected goals a match against 1.72 for Atletico Madrid.
- Atletico Madrid give away less, 1.05 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Atletico Madrid 16.9 (6.4 on target), Real Madrid 18.9 (7.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Atletico Madrid 67.7%, Real Madrid 70.5%.
| Atletico Madrid | Per match | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.41 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.20 |
| 2.29 | Goals | 2.57 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 18.9 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 7.6 |
| 1.9 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| 67.7 | Pressure share % | 70.5 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 15.0 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Atletico Madrid won 3, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Atletico Madrid | 2 – 1 | Real Madrid |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Real Madrid | 3 – 2 | Atletico Madrid |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Atletico Madrid | 5 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 12 Mar 2025 | Atletico Madrid | 1 – 0 | Real Madrid |
| 4 Mar 2025 | Real Madrid | 2 – 1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Real Madrid | 1 – 1 | Atletico Madrid |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.