Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 37
Brasileirão · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena MRV · updated 2026-11-15
Atlético Mineiro welcome Vasco da Gama to Arena MRV in Brasileirão Gameweek 37 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Atlético Mineiro have played 35 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 71% win rate. Vasco da Gama have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Atlético Mineiro 38%, the draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atlético Mineiro 1.35, Vasco da Gama 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (35 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Atlético Mineiro: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.7).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 49.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (56% at home).
- Both teams scored in 46% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Vasco da Gama: form and key numbers
In style Vasco da Gama keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: -13.9).
- Shots: 17.5 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 15% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 62% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama: season averages side by side
| Atlético Mineiro | Per match this season | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 1.31 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 17.5 |
| 4.6 | On target | 5.3 |
| 49.6 | Possession % | 54.7 |
| 26% | Clean sheets % | 15% |
| 46% | Both teams scored % | 62% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Players to watch
Atlético Mineiro
- Fred CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Creator, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
- Tomás Cuello LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 55 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 26% of his position)
Vasco da Gama
- Claudio Spinelli CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 59 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
- Santiago Sosa DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 56 · Reads the game, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Cuiabano
Cuiabano, 23 · Vasco da Gama · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 68
Cuiabano, 23, plays as a wing-back for Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in tackles and duels won. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 68
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 68
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 3.71 / 90 | 98% |
| Duels won | 8.54 / 90 | 98% |
| Interceptions | 2.02 / 90 | 96% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.33 / 90 | 71% |
| Expected goals | 0.13 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Ball-winner, Duel winner, Reads the game.
- What Cuiabano is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama prediction
Vasco da Gama should have more of the ball, with Atlético Mineiro likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Vasco da Gama work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.35 for Atlético Mineiro and 1.27 for Vasco da Gama - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Atlético Mineiro 1-1 Vasco da Gama
Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.61 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.6 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 10.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
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- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Internacional Thursday 19 November 2026
Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama: questions and answers
When is Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?
Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 37.
Where is Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama played?
At Arena MRV, Atlético Mineiro's home ground.
Who will win Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?
It is close: Atlético Mineiro 38%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 34%. Our prediction is Atlético Mineiro 1-1 Vasco da Gama.
Who is the player to watch in Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?
Cuiabano of Vasco da Gama: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.