Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Wednesday 18 November 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte · updated 2026-11-13
Cruzeiro welcome Palmeiras to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Wednesday 18 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
Cruzeiro have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 56% win rate. Palmeiras have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 62% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 17 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Palmeiras are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 25% and Cruzeiro at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.14, Palmeiras 1.69.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Cruzeiro: form and key numbers
In style Cruzeiro keep the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Palmeiras: form and key numbers
In style Palmeiras press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +9.6).
- Shots: 15.5 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 47% of matches (56% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras: season averages side by side
| Cruzeiro | Per match this season | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 15.2 | Shots | 15.5 |
| 5.4 | On target | 5.3 |
| 54.7 | Possession % | 52.3 |
| 24% | Clean sheets % | 47% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Cruzeiro
- Kaiki LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Dribbler, Hard to dribble past (top 9% of his position)
- Gabriel Rojas LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Creator (top 19% of his position)
Palmeiras
- Vitor Roque CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 11% of his position)
- Emiliano Martínez DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 55 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira, 30 · Cruzeiro · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 60
Matheus Pereira, 30, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 60
- RW · Winger Competent, 36
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.64 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 3.43 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 68% |
| Shots | 2.93 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Matheus Pereira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Matheus Pereira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras prediction
Cruzeiro should have more of the ball; Cruzeiro work the ball wide and cross; Palmeiras like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.14 for Cruzeiro and 1.69 for Palmeiras - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 56%. Palmeiras have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Cruzeiro 1-2 Palmeiras
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras: what the numbers say
- 1. Palmeiras unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.84 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 12.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
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- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras: questions and answers
When is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras is on Wednesday 18 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras played?
At Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Cruzeiro's home ground.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Palmeiras are the favourites: Cruzeiro 25%, draw 25%, Palmeiras 50%. Our prediction is Cruzeiro 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who is the player to watch in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Matheus Pereira of Cruzeiro: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.