Coritiba vs Santos Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Wednesday 18 November 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba · updated 2026-11-13
Coritiba welcome Santos to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Wednesday 18 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Coritiba have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 17 matches, with a 55% win rate. Santos have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 17 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Coritiba 32%, the draw 26%, Santos 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Coritiba 1.31, Santos 1.51.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Coritiba: form and key numbers
In style Coritiba are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.09 a match created, 1.74 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 40.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (43% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 10.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Santos: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.5).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (43% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Coritiba vs Santos: season averages side by side
| Coritiba | Per match this season | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.74 | xG conceded | 1.32 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 3.4 | On target | 4.3 |
| 40.4 | Possession % | 50.3 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 47% | Both teams scored % | 74% |
| 3.9 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Coritiba
- Rodrigo Moledo CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 12% of his position)
- Pedro Morisco GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 53 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
Santos
- Benjamín Rollheiser RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69 · Chance creator, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Miguelito AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 51 · Dribbler, Secure passer (top 31% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Neymar
Neymar, 34 · Santos · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 59
Neymar, 34, plays as an attacking midfielder for Santos in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and expected goals. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 59
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 56
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 4.38 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.55 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.66 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.51 / 90 | 66% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Neymar is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Coritiba vs Santos prediction
Santos should have more of the ball, with Coritiba likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Coritiba go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.31 for Coritiba and 1.51 for Santos - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Coritiba 1-1 Santos
Coritiba vs Santos: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.82 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 19.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
Coritiba vs Santos: questions and answers
When is Coritiba vs Santos?
Coritiba vs Santos is on Wednesday 18 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is Coritiba vs Santos played?
At Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, Coritiba's home ground.
Who will win Coritiba vs Santos?
It is close: Coritiba 32%, draw 26%, Santos 41%. Our prediction is Coritiba 1-1 Santos.
Who is the player to watch in Coritiba vs Santos?
Neymar of Santos: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Santos?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.