Grêmio vs Bahia Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Thursday 19 November 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Arena do Grêmio, Rio · updated 2026-11-13
Grêmio welcome Bahia to Arena do Grêmio in Rio in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Thursday 19 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Grêmio have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 17 matches, with a 89% win rate. Bahia have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bahia are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and Grêmio at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Grêmio 1.36, Bahia 1.64.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Grêmio: form and key numbers
In style Grêmio play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.93 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Bahia: form and key numbers
In style Bahia keep the ball, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.67 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (44% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Grêmio vs Bahia: season averages side by side
| Grêmio | Per match this season | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.93 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 3.8 | On target | 4.7 |
| 49.1 | Possession % | 53.5 |
| 24% | Clean sheets % | 26% |
| 59% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Grêmio
- Wallace CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 58 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
- Marlon LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 49 · Crosser, Ball-winner (top 19% of his position)
Bahia
- Ronaldo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
- Léo Vieira GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: David Duarte
David Duarte, 31 · Bahia · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 49
David Duarte, 31, plays as a centre-back for Bahia in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and dribbled past. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 49
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 3.41 / 90 | 86% |
| Dribbled past | 0.26 / 90 | 70% |
| Clearances | 6.16 / 90 | 60% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 56% |
| Blocked shots | 0.89 / 90 | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air.
- What David Duarte is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open David Duarte's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Grêmio vs Bahia prediction
Bahia should have more of the ball, with Grêmio likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Grêmio go long and direct; Bahia work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.36 for Grêmio and 1.64 for Bahia - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Bahia have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Grêmio 1-2 Bahia
Grêmio vs Bahia: what the numbers say
- 1. Bahia unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 58% by the model, 3.00 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 11.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Grêmio vs Bahia: questions and answers
When is Grêmio vs Bahia?
Grêmio vs Bahia is on Thursday 19 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is Grêmio vs Bahia played?
At Arena do Grêmio, Rio, Grêmio's home ground.
Who will win Grêmio vs Bahia?
Bahia are the favourites: Grêmio 31%, draw 25%, Bahia 44%. Our prediction is Grêmio 1-2 Bahia.
Who is the player to watch in Grêmio vs Bahia?
David Duarte of Bahia: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Grêmio vs Bahia?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.