Vitória vs Bragantino Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Thursday 19 November 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador · updated 2026-11-13
Vitória welcome Bragantino to Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Thursday 19 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Vitória have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 100% win rate. Bragantino have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 17 matches, with a 31% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Vitória 32%, the draw 27%, Bragantino 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Vitória 1.27, Bragantino 1.45.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Vitória: form and key numbers
In style Vitória are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.01 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 32% of matches (91% at home).
- Both teams scored in 41% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Bragantino: form and key numbers
In style Bragantino play long and direct, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.2).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Vitória vs Bragantino: season averages side by side
| Vitória | Per match this season | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.01 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.51 |
| 1.60 | xG conceded | 1.82 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 4.1 | On target | 5.5 |
| 44.8 | Possession % | 49.6 |
| 32% | Clean sheets % | 26% |
| 41% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Players to watch
Vitória
- Mateusinho RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 10% of his position)
- Caíque Gonçalves DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 46 · Blocks shots, Secure passer (top 7% of his position)
Bragantino
- Ryan Augusto Tavares da Silva RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 74 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- Agustín Sant'Anna RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Henry Mosquera
Henry Mosquera, 24 · Bragantino · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 62
Henry Mosquera, 24, plays as a winger for Bragantino in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 62
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 59
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 5.64 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 2.54 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 79% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.08 / 90 | 76% |
| Big chances created | 0.44 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Chance creator.
- What Henry Mosquera is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Henry Mosquera's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Vitória vs Bragantino prediction
Bragantino should have more of the ball; Vitória go long and direct; Bragantino work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.27 for Vitória and 1.45 for Bragantino - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Vitória 1-1 Bragantino
Vitória vs Bragantino: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.72 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 14.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Vitória vs Bragantino: questions and answers
When is Vitória vs Bragantino?
Vitória vs Bragantino is on Thursday 19 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is Vitória vs Bragantino played?
At Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Vitória's home ground.
Who will win Vitória vs Bragantino?
It is close: Vitória 32%, draw 27%, Bragantino 40%. Our prediction is Vitória 1-1 Bragantino.
Who is the player to watch in Vitória vs Bragantino?
Henry Mosquera of Bragantino: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vitória vs Bragantino?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.