Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 16
Russian Premier League · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Kaliningrad Stadium, Kaliningrad · updated 2026-11-14
Baltika Kaliningrad welcome Akhmat Grozny to Kaliningrad Stadium in Kaliningrad in Russian Premier League Gameweek 16 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Baltika Kaliningrad have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 8 matches, with a 50% win rate. Akhmat Grozny have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 21% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Baltika Kaliningrad are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 28% and Akhmat Grozny at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Baltika Kaliningrad 1.46, Akhmat Grozny 0.83.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 44%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Baltika Kaliningrad: form and key numbers
In style Baltika Kaliningrad are happy without the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 42.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Akhmat Grozny: form and key numbers
In style Akhmat Grozny play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny: season averages side by side
| Baltika Kaliningrad | Per match this season | Akhmat Grozny |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Matches | 14 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| 0.83 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 13.1 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 4.4 | On target | 3.7 |
| 42.3 | Possession % | 47.9 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 57% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Baltika Kaliningrad
- Fahd Moufi RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 35 · Hard to dribble past, Reads the game (top 25% of his position)
- E. Ćivić LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 25 · Crosser, Duel winner (top 32% of his position)
Akhmat Grozny
- Kalidou Sidibé DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 26 · Hard to dribble past, Press-resistant (top 2% of his position)
- Arsen Adamov RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 25 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brayan Gil
Brayan Gil, 25 · Baltika Kaliningrad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 32
Brayan Gil, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 32
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 28
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 96% |
| Shots on target | 55% | 87% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.99 / 90 | 72% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.60 / 90 | 40% |
| Expected goals | 0.60 / 90 | 37% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Brayan Gil is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brayan Gil's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny prediction
Akhmat Grozny should have more of the ball, with Baltika Kaliningrad likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.46 for Baltika Kaliningrad and 0.83 for Akhmat Grozny - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 44%. Baltika Kaliningrad have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Baltika Kaliningrad 2-0 Akhmat Grozny
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny: what the numbers say
- 1. Baltika Kaliningrad unbeaten (win or draw) 79% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 60% by the model, 2.29 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Russian Premier League previews
- Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov Friday 20 November 2026
- Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad Saturday 21 November 2026
- Akron vs Fakel Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rubin Kazan vs Zenit Saturday 21 November 2026
- CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dinamo Moskva vs Krasnodar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Dynamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
- Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny: questions and answers
When is Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny?
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 16.
Where is Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny played?
At Kaliningrad Stadium, Kaliningrad, Baltika Kaliningrad's home ground.
Who will win Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny?
Baltika Kaliningrad are the favourites: Baltika Kaliningrad 51%, draw 28%, Akhmat Grozny 21%. Our prediction is Baltika Kaliningrad 2-0 Akhmat Grozny.
Who is the player to watch in Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny?
Brayan Gil of Baltika Kaliningrad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 32 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akhmat Grozny?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.