Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Bundesliga · Sunday 20 September 2026 · 21:30 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Sunday 20 September 2026 (21:30). The bookmakers make Bayer Leverkusen narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 25% and RB Leipzig at 30%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 at 2.00, RB Leipzig at 1.86. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.85, under 1.99, which gives over 52%.
Form in numbers
- Bayer Leverkusen create more: 2.53 expected goals a match against 2.09 for RB Leipzig.
- Bayer Leverkusen give away less, 0.89 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Bayer Leverkusen 22.5 (6.3 on target), RB Leipzig 18.8 (6.3 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Bayer Leverkusen 75.0%, RB Leipzig 63.9%.
| Bayer Leverkusen | Per match | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 2.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.09 |
| 0.89 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 2.50 | Goals | 2.25 |
| 22.5 | Shots | 18.8 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 2.8 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 75.0 | Pressure share % | 63.9 |
| 13.3 | Tackles | 11.8 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Bayer Leverkusen won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 – 0 | RB Leipzig |
| 2 May 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 – 1 | RB Leipzig |
| 20 Dec 2025 | RB Leipzig | 1 – 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 25 Jan 2025 | RB Leipzig | 2 – 2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 – 3 | RB Leipzig |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.