Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 18
Championship · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham · updated 2026-11-14
Birmingham City welcome Bolton Wanderers to St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham in Championship Gameweek 18 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Birmingham City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 8 matches, with a 50% win rate. Bolton Wanderers have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 8 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Birmingham City are clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 18% and Bolton Wanderers at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Birmingham City 2.48, Bolton Wanderers 1.05.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Birmingham City: form and key numbers
In style Birmingham City play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Bolton Wanderers: form and key numbers
In style Bolton Wanderers play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers: season averages side by side
| Birmingham City | Per match this season | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 1.37 | xG conceded | 1.98 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 14.1 |
| 5.3 | On target | 4.7 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 51.3 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Birmingham City
- Liam Millar LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 17% of his position)
- Christoph Klarer CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 45 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Bolton Wanderers
- Rúben Rodrigues AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 52 · Chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Gavin Bazunu GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 43 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 28% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Chris Forino
Chris Forino, 26 · Bolton Wanderers · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 56
Chris Forino, 26, plays as a centre-back for Bolton Wanderers in the Championship. Strongest for his role in fouls committed and clearances. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls committed | 0.23 / 90 | 95% |
| Clearances | 8.80 / 90 | 85% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.95 / 90 | 84% |
| Duels won | 7.67 / 90 | 83% |
| Interceptions | 2.37 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Disciplined, Box defender, Dominant in the air.
- What Chris Forino is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Chris Forino's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers prediction
Bolton Wanderers should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.48 for Birmingham City and 1.05 for Bolton Wanderers - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 60%. Birmingham City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Birmingham City 3-1 Bolton Wanderers
Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers: what the numbers say
- 1. Birmingham City win, the likeliest result 68% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 68% by the model, 3.53 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers: questions and answers
When is Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 18.
Where is Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers played?
At St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham, Birmingham City's home ground.
Who will win Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Birmingham City are the favourites: Birmingham City 68%, draw 18%, Bolton Wanderers 14%. Our prediction is Birmingham City 3-1 Bolton Wanderers.
Who is the player to watch in Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Chris Forino of Bolton Wanderers: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.