Southampton vs Derby County Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 16
Championship · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 12:30 UTC · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton · updated 2026-11-13
Southampton welcome Derby County to St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton in Championship Gameweek 16 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Southampton have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 2.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 7 matches, with a 75% win rate. Derby County have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 7 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Southampton are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 17% and Derby County at 11%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Southampton 2.53, Derby County 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Southampton: form and key numbers
In style Southampton keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.9).
- Shots: 15.6 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Derby County: form and key numbers
In style Derby County play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 2.10 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.7).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 7% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Southampton vs Derby County: season averages side by side
| Southampton | Per match this season | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 2.10 |
| 15.6 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.8 |
| 57.2 | Possession % | 46.8 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 7% |
| 73% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Southampton
- Daniel Peretz GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 50 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 22% of his position)
- Léo Scienza LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 43 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
Derby County
- Jacob Widell Zetterström GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 45 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 30% of his position)
- David Ozoh DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 36 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Joe Ward
Joe Ward, 31 · Derby County · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 49
Joe Ward, 31, plays as a wide midfielder for Derby County in the Championship. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and dispossessed. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 49
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 49
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 46
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.02 / 90 | 91% |
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 91% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.28 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 50% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Press-resistant, Reads the game.
- What Joe Ward is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Southampton vs Derby County prediction
Southampton should have more of the ball, with Derby County likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Southampton press high to win the ball back; Derby County are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.53 for Southampton and 0.90 for Derby County - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 55%. Southampton have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Southampton 2-1 Derby County
Southampton vs Derby County: what the numbers say
- 1. Southampton win, the likeliest result 72% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 67% by the model, 3.43 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
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- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
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Southampton vs Derby County: questions and answers
When is Southampton vs Derby County?
Southampton vs Derby County is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 16.
Where is Southampton vs Derby County played?
At St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Southampton's home ground.
Who will win Southampton vs Derby County?
Southampton are the favourites: Southampton 72%, draw 17%, Derby County 11%. Our prediction is Southampton 2-1 Derby County.
Who is the player to watch in Southampton vs Derby County?
Joe Ward of Derby County: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Derby County?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.