Stoke City vs Birmingham City Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 16
Championship · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Bet365 Stadium, Stoke · updated 2026-11-13
Stoke City welcome Birmingham City to Bet365 Stadium in Stoke in Championship Gameweek 16 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Stoke City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 7 matches, with a 44% win rate. Birmingham City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 53% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 7 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Birmingham City are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 27% and Stoke City at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Stoke City 1.23, Birmingham City 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Stoke City: form and key numbers
In style Stoke City are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.1).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Birmingham City: form and key numbers
In style Birmingham City play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Stoke City vs Birmingham City: season averages side by side
| Stoke City | Per match this season | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.37 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 3.6 | On target | 5.3 |
| 46.4 | Possession % | 51.2 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Stoke City
- Sorba Thomas LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 38 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Luca Bombino LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 38 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
Birmingham City
- Christoph Klarer CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 45 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Phil Neumann CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 44 · Dominant in the air, Hard to dribble past (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Liam Millar
Liam Millar, 27 · Birmingham City · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47
Liam Millar, 27, plays as a winger for Birmingham City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in big chances created and accurate crosses. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 47
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.68 / 90 | 83% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.46 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 75% |
| Key passes | 2.25 / 90 | 55% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.02 / 90 | 52% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Crosser.
- What Liam Millar is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Liam Millar's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Stoke City vs Birmingham City prediction
Birmingham City should have more of the ball, with Stoke City likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.23 for Stoke City and 1.48 for Birmingham City - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Birmingham City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Stoke City 1-2 Birmingham City
Stoke City vs Birmingham City: what the numbers say
- 1. Birmingham City unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.72 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Stoke City vs Birmingham City: questions and answers
When is Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Stoke City vs Birmingham City is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 16.
Where is Stoke City vs Birmingham City played?
At Bet365 Stadium, Stoke, Stoke City's home ground.
Who will win Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Birmingham City are the favourites: Stoke City 31%, draw 27%, Birmingham City 42%. Our prediction is Stoke City 1-2 Birmingham City.
Who is the player to watch in Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Liam Millar of Birmingham City: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.