Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 16
Championship · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 12:30 UTC · The Den, London · updated 2026-11-13
Millwall welcome Queens Park Rangers to The Den in London in Championship Gameweek 16 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Millwall have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 7 matches, with a 60% win rate. Queens Park Rangers have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 7 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Millwall 35%, the draw 25%, Queens Park Rangers 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Millwall 1.54, Queens Park Rangers 1.65.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Millwall: form and key numbers
In style Millwall press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.8).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Queens Park Rangers: form and key numbers
In style Queens Park Rangers press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 1.19 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers: season averages side by side
| Millwall | Per match this season | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.83 |
| 1.49 | xG conceded | 1.19 |
| 14.1 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 3.9 | On target | 4.9 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 49.8 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 47% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Millwall
- Josh Coburn CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 53 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Caleb Taylor CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 40 · Dominant in the air, Reads the game (top 8% of his position)
Queens Park Rangers
- Richard Kone CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 46 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 1% of his position)
- Alfie Lloyd CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 44 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 30% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Harvey Vale
Harvey Vale, 23 · Queens Park Rangers · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 46
Harvey Vale, 23, plays as a wide midfielder for Queens Park Rangers in the Championship. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 46
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 40
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.48 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 86% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.29 / 90 | 77% |
| Dispossessed | 0.74 / 90 | 68% |
| Tackles | 2.21 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator.
- What Harvey Vale is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Harvey Vale's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers prediction
Queens Park Rangers should have more of the ball; Millwall are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Queens Park Rangers press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.54 for Millwall and 1.65 for Queens Park Rangers - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 64%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Millwall 1-1 Queens Park Rangers
Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 3 or more goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers: questions and answers
When is Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 16.
Where is Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers played?
At The Den, London, Millwall's home ground.
Who will win Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
It is close: Millwall 35%, draw 25%, Queens Park Rangers 40%. Our prediction is Millwall 1-1 Queens Park Rangers.
Who is the player to watch in Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Harvey Vale of Queens Park Rangers: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 46 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.