Bodø / Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø · updated 2026-10-09
Bodø / Glimt host Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites at 50%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bodø / Glimt 1.51, Borussia Dortmund 2.05.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Complete forward
Moneyball Scout picks Serhou Guirassy as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 69, defensive 39).
- Key passes: 1.85 per 90 minutes, better than 86% of centre-forwards
- Shots on target: 54%, better than 74% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 3.43 per 90 minutes, better than 72% of centre-forwards
Bodø / Glimt concede 2.2 goals a match this season, more than the league's average: the space a complete forward like Serhou Guirassy lives on.
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Bodø / Glimt | Per match this season | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.4 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.96 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 14.5 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.3 |
| 53.2 | Possession % | 48.8 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 75% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 7.01 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Borussia Dortmund in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Felix Nmecha midfielder · rating 7.52 · 4 apps
- Serhou Guirassy forward · rating 7.38 · 4 apps
- Waldemar Anton defender · rating 7.31 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.