Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø · updated 2026-10-20
Bodø / Glimt welcome LOSC Lille to Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Bodø / Glimt have played 6 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. LOSC Lille have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Bodø / Glimt 41%, the draw 26%, LOSC Lille 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bodø / Glimt 1.58, LOSC Lille 1.42.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Bodø / Glimt: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.7).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
LOSC Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 57% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille: season averages side by side
| Bodø / Glimt | Per match this season | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.7 | On target | 5.4 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 50.1 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 57% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
LOSC Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Dilane Bakwa RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 59 · Crosser, Creator (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ethan Mbappé
Ethan Mbappé, 19 · LOSC Lille · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65
Ethan Mbappé, 19, plays as a winger for LOSC Lille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and fouls won. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 65
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 61
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.56 / 90 | 81% |
| Fouls won | 2.30 / 90 | 74% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 73% |
| Dispossessed | 0.77 / 90 | 72% |
| Expected goals | 0.29 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Dribbler.
- What Ethan Mbappé is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ethan Mbappé's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.58 for Bodø / Glimt and 1.42 for LOSC Lille - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Bodø / Glimt 1-1 LOSC Lille
Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.00 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille: questions and answers
When is Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille?
Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille is on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille played?
At Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø, Bodø / Glimt's home ground.
Who will win Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille?
It is close: Bodø / Glimt 41%, draw 26%, LOSC Lille 34%. Our prediction is Bodø / Glimt 1-1 LOSC Lille.
Who is the player to watch in Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille?
Ethan Mbappé of LOSC Lille: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.