Bologna vs Monza Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 10
Serie A · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna · updated 2026-10-17
Bologna welcome Monza to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna in Serie A Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Bologna have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Monza have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bologna are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 26% and Monza at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bologna 1.65, Monza 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Bologna: form and key numbers
In style Bologna cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.42 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Bologna vs Monza: season averages side by side
| Bologna | Per match this season | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 1.42 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 0.96 | xG conceded | 1.35 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 3.5 | On target | 6.0 |
| 50.7 | Possession % | 44.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.69 |
Players to watch
Bologna
- Eivind Helland CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
- Lewis Ferguson CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
Monza
- Lorenzo Lucchesi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
- Ebenezer Akinsanmiro CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 55 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi, 32 · Bologna · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62
Federico Bernardeschi, 32, plays as a winger for Bologna in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and big chances created. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 62
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 58
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.69 / 90 | 91% |
| Big chances created | 0.72 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots | 2.90 / 90 | 75% |
| Key passes | 1.69 / 90 | 53% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Crosser, Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Federico Bernardeschi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Federico Bernardeschi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bologna vs Monza prediction
Bologna should have more of the ball, with Monza likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.65 for Bologna and 1.17 for Monza - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 56%. Bologna have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bologna 2-1 Monza
Bologna vs Monza betting tips
- Tip 1: Bologna win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.82 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Bologna vs Monza: questions and answers
When is Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna vs Monza is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 10.
Where is Bologna vs Monza played?
At Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Bologna's home ground.
Who will win Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna are the favourites: Bologna 48%, draw 26%, Monza 26%. Our prediction is Bologna 2-1 Monza.
Who is the player to watch in Bologna vs Monza?
Federico Bernardeschi of Bologna: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bologna vs Monza?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.