Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 16
Championship · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton · updated 2026-11-13
Bolton Wanderers welcome Portsmouth to Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton in Championship Gameweek 16 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Bolton Wanderers have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 7 matches, with a 40% win rate. Portsmouth have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 7 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Bolton Wanderers 33%, the draw 26%, Portsmouth 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers 1.35, Portsmouth 1.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Bolton Wanderers: form and key numbers
In style Bolton Wanderers play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Portsmouth: form and key numbers
In style Portsmouth play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.28 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth: season averages side by side
| Bolton Wanderers | Per match this season | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.25 |
| 1.98 | xG conceded | 1.28 |
| 14.1 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 4.7 | On target | 3.6 |
| 51.3 | Possession % | 51.1 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Bolton Wanderers
- Rúben Rodrigues AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 52 · Chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Gavin Bazunu GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 43 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 28% of his position)
Portsmouth
- Marko Milovanović CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 47 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Conor Shaughnessy CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 36 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Chris Forino
Chris Forino, 26 · Bolton Wanderers · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 56
Chris Forino, 26, plays as a centre-back for Bolton Wanderers in the Championship. Strongest for his role in fouls committed and clearances. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls committed | 0.23 / 90 | 95% |
| Clearances | 8.80 / 90 | 85% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.95 / 90 | 84% |
| Duels won | 7.67 / 90 | 83% |
| Interceptions | 2.37 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Disciplined, Box defender, Dominant in the air.
- What Chris Forino is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Chris Forino's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth prediction
Bolton Wanderers should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.35 for Bolton Wanderers and 1.52 for Portsmouth - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Portsmouth
Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.87 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth: questions and answers
When is Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth?
Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 16.
Where is Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth played?
At Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton, Bolton Wanderers's home ground.
Who will win Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth?
It is close: Bolton Wanderers 33%, draw 26%, Portsmouth 41%. Our prediction is Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Portsmouth.
Who is the player to watch in Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth?
Chris Forino of Bolton Wanderers: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.