Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Gradski Stadion, Foca, Foča · updated 2026-11-13
Borac Banja Luka welcome Atalanta to Gradski Stadion, Foca in Foča in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Borac Banja Luka have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 80% win rate. Atalanta have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Borac Banja Luka 33%, the draw 27%, Atalanta 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Borac Banja Luka 1.28, Atalanta 1.42.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Borac Banja Luka: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.40 a match created (goals minus xG: +13.4).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 47.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.56.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta: season averages side by side
| Borac Banja Luka | Per match this season | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 0.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 15.0 |
| 5.6 | On target | 4.8 |
| 47.4 | Possession % | 57.2 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 6.6 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.56 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Relja Obrić CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 69 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 7% of his position)
- Jonathan Rowe LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 67 · Draws fouls, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović, 26 · Atalanta · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 71
Nikola Krstović, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Atalanta in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 71
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.18 / 90 | 89% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.76 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.72 / 90 | 87% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.66 / 90 | 72% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Nikola Krstović is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Nikola Krstović's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.28 for Borac Banja Luka and 1.42 for Atalanta - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Borac Banja Luka 1-1 Atalanta
Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.70 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta: questions and answers
When is Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta played?
At Gradski Stadion, Foca, Foča, Borac Banja Luka's home ground.
Who will win Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
It is close: Borac Banja Luka 33%, draw 27%, Atalanta 40%. Our prediction is Borac Banja Luka 1-1 Atalanta.
Who is the player to watch in Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
Nikola Krstović of Atalanta: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.