Botafogo vs Bahia Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 37
Brasileirão · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-11-15
Botafogo welcome Bahia to Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 37 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Botafogo have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 64% win rate. Bahia have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Botafogo 41%, the draw 26%, Bahia 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Botafogo 1.59, Bahia 1.40.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Botafogo: form and key numbers
In style Botafogo cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.22 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.6).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (83% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Bahia: form and key numbers
In style Bahia keep the ball, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.67 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (44% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Botafogo vs Bahia: season averages side by side
| Botafogo | Per match this season | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.22 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 5.1 | On target | 4.7 |
| 47.9 | Possession % | 53.5 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 26% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Botafogo
- Raul GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
- Marçal LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Crosser, Hard to dribble past (top 7% of his position)
Bahia
- Ronaldo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
- Léo Vieira GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: David Duarte
David Duarte, 31 · Bahia · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 49
David Duarte, 31, plays as a centre-back for Bahia in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and dribbled past. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 49
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 3.41 / 90 | 86% |
| Dribbled past | 0.26 / 90 | 71% |
| Clearances | 6.16 / 90 | 60% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 57% |
| Blocked shots | 0.89 / 90 | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air.
- What David Duarte is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open David Duarte's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Botafogo vs Bahia prediction
Bahia should have more of the ball, with Botafogo likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.59 for Botafogo and 1.40 for Bahia - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Botafogo 1-1 Bahia
Botafogo vs Bahia: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 3 or more goals 58% by the model, 2.99 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 11.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
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- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Internacional Thursday 19 November 2026
Botafogo vs Bahia: questions and answers
When is Botafogo vs Bahia?
Botafogo vs Bahia is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 37.
Where is Botafogo vs Bahia played?
At Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Botafogo's home ground.
Who will win Botafogo vs Bahia?
It is close: Botafogo 41%, draw 26%, Bahia 33%. Our prediction is Botafogo 1-1 Bahia.
Who is the player to watch in Botafogo vs Bahia?
David Duarte of Bahia: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Bahia?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.