Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 13:00 UTC · The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer · updated 2026-10-09
Brighton & Hove Albion host Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October 2026 at The American Express Community Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Brighton & Hove Albion clear favourites at 76%, puts the draw at 14% and expects about 4.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion 3.08, Crystal Palace 1.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 79% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper, 25 · Brighton & Hove Albion · LWB · Attacking wing-back
Moneyball Scout picks Maxim De Cuyper as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 73, defensive 32).
- Expected goals: 0.25 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of wing-backs
- Key passes: 2.54 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wing-backs
- Accurate crosses: 1.69 per 90 minutes, better than 81% of wing-backs
Crystal Palace concede 2.2 goals a match this season (2.25 expected), more than the league's average: the space a attacking wing-back like Maxim De Cuyper lives on.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Per match this season | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 3.2 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 2.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.08 |
| 1.74 | xG conceded | 2.25 |
| 19.0 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 5.8 | On target | 3.6 |
| 64.6 | Possession % | 43.4 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 2.4 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 7.03 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Pascal Groß midfielder · rating 7.86 · 5 apps
- Maxim De Cuyper midfielder · rating 7.28 · 5 apps
- Malick Yalcouyé midfielder · rating 7.24 · 5 apps
Crystal Palace
- Quinten Timber midfielder · rating 7.03 · 3 apps
- Anan Khalaili midfielder · rating 7.00 · 5 apps
- Tyrick Mitchell midfielder · rating 7.00 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Everton vs Chelsea Saturday 17 October 2026
- Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 17 October 2026
- Fulham vs Hull City Saturday 17 October 2026
- Brentford vs Liverpool Saturday 17 October 2026
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.