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Bristol City vs Wrexham Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 17

Bristol City welcome Wrexham to Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol in Championship Gameweek 17 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.

Bristol City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 8 matches, with a 40% win rate. Wrexham have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 7 matches, with a 25% win rate.

On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Bristol City 37%, the draw 29%, Wrexham 35%.

Moneyball's estimate

Bristol City37%home win
Draw29%draw
Wrexham35%away win

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.

Bristol City: form and key numbers

In style Bristol City are happy without the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.

Wrexham: form and key numbers

In style Wrexham play long and direct, are strong in the air.

Bristol City vs Wrexham: season averages side by side

Bristol CityPer match this seasonWrexham
15Matches15
1.1Goals scored1.2
1.6Goals conceded1.3
1.37Expected goals (xG)1.23
1.58xG conceded1.26
13.2Shots11.9
4.3On target3.3
45.2Possession %48.1
13%Clean sheets %20%
53%Both teams scored %60%
5.3Corners4.7
1.3Yellow cards1.3
6.70Average rating6.81

Players to watch

Bristol City

Wrexham

Scouting spotlight: Rio Cardines

Rio Cardines, 20 · Bristol City · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 44

Rio Cardines, 20, plays as a wing-back for Bristol City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Accurate crosses 96Key passes 95Expected assists 83Successful dribbles 0Expected goals 1Tackles 26Interceptions 24Duels won 11Dribbled past 31

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

  • LWB · Wing-back Natural, 44
  • LB · Full-back Natural, 43
  • RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 41

Where he is strongest

FigureHis numberBetter than
Accurate crosses2.82 / 9096%
Key passes3.45 / 9095%
Expected assists (est.)0.36 / 9083%
Dribbled past0.63 / 9031%
Tackles1.96 / 9026%

Roles he suits

  • ★★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
  • ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
  • ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back

Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Creator.

In Moneyball Scout
  • What Rio Cardines is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
  • How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
  • The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
  • His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Rio Cardines's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Bristol City vs Wrexham prediction

Wrexham should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.26 for Bristol City and 1.22 for Wrexham - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 51%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.

Prediction: Bristol City 1-1 Wrexham

Bristol City vs Wrexham: what the numbers say

  1. 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
  2. 2. 2 goals or fewer 55% by the model, 2.49 goals expected
  3. 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
  4. 4. 9 or more corners 10.1 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

The full analysis

Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.

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Bristol City vs Wrexham: questions and answers

When is Bristol City vs Wrexham?

Bristol City vs Wrexham is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 17.

Where is Bristol City vs Wrexham played?

At Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol, Bristol City's home ground.

Who will win Bristol City vs Wrexham?

It is close: Bristol City 37%, draw 29%, Wrexham 35%. Our prediction is Bristol City 1-1 Wrexham.

Who is the player to watch in Bristol City vs Wrexham?

Rio Cardines of Bristol City: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Bristol City vs Wrexham?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.

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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.