Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo · updated 2026-11-13
Celta de Vigo welcome AFC Bournemouth to Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Celta de Vigo have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. AFC Bournemouth have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Celta de Vigo 32%, the draw 31%, AFC Bournemouth 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celta de Vigo 1.03, AFC Bournemouth 1.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 37% · both teams to score: 44%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Celta de Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
AFC Bournemouth: form and key numbers
In style AFC Bournemouth press high, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.46 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 18.5 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth: season averages side by side
| Celta de Vigo | Per match this season | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 1.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.46 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 18.5 |
| 3.8 | On target | 6.5 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 55.5 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 7.5 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Players to watch
Celta de Vigo
- Hugo González RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Sebastián Cáceres CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 18% of his position)
AFC Bournemouth
- James Hill CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Alex Scott CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: António Silva
António Silva, 23 · AFC Bournemouth · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67
António Silva, 23, plays as a centre-back for AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in long balls and aerial duels won. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Long balls | 3.80 / 90 | 98% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.60 / 90 | 95% |
| Clearances | 7.40 / 90 | 90% |
| Duels won | 5.00 / 90 | 85% |
| Passes | 56.90 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★½ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
Scout's notes: Long passer, Dominant in the air, Box defender.
- What António Silva is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open António Silva's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
Celta de Vigo should have more of the ball; AFC Bournemouth are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.03 for Celta de Vigo and 1.13 for AFC Bournemouth - with over 2.5 goals at 37% and both teams scoring at 44%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Celta de Vigo 1-1 AFC Bournemouth
Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 63% by the model, 2.16 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 14.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth: questions and answers
When is Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth played?
At Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo, Celta de Vigo's home ground.
Who will win Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
It is close: Celta de Vigo 32%, draw 31%, AFC Bournemouth 37%. Our prediction is Celta de Vigo 1-1 AFC Bournemouth.
Who is the player to watch in Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
António Silva of AFC Bournemouth: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Celta de Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 37%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.