Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Doosan Aréna, Plzeň · updated 2026-11-13
Viktoria Plzeň welcome Benfica to Doosan Aréna in Plzeň in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Viktoria Plzeň have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Benfica have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 3.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Benfica are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and Viktoria Plzeň at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Viktoria Plzeň 1.37, Benfica 1.68.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Viktoria Plzeň: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.12 a match created (goals minus xG: -4.7).
- Shots: 18.2 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Benfica: form and key numbers
In style Benfica keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.21 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.9).
- Shots: 18.9 a match, 7.4 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica: season averages side by side
| Viktoria Plzeň | Per match this season | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 3.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.21 |
| 18.2 | Shots | 18.9 |
| 7.0 | On target | 7.4 |
| 47.8 | Possession % | 60.3 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 6.6 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 7.09 |
Players to watch
Benfica
- Vangelis Pavlidis CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 68 · Takes high-quality shots, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 2% of his position)
- João Palhinha DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 51 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gianluca Prestianni
Gianluca Prestianni, 20 · Benfica · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 75
Gianluca Prestianni, 20, plays as a winger for Benfica in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 75
- RW · Winger Natural, 75
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.58 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.28 / 90 | 83% |
| Fouls won | 3.00 / 90 | 81% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.19 / 90 | 76% |
| Big chances created | 0.58 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Draws fouls.
⚠ 7 goals from only 2.9 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Gianluca Prestianni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gianluca Prestianni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.37 for Viktoria Plzeň and 1.68 for Benfica - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 61%. Benfica have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Viktoria Plzeň 1-2 Benfica
Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica: what the numbers say
- 1. Benfica unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 59% by the model, 3.05 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica: questions and answers
When is Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica?
Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica played?
At Doosan Aréna, Plzeň, Viktoria Plzeň's home ground.
Who will win Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica?
Benfica are the favourites: Viktoria Plzeň 31%, draw 25%, Benfica 44%. Our prediction is Viktoria Plzeň 1-2 Benfica.
Who is the player to watch in Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica?
Gianluca Prestianni of Benfica: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.