Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus · updated 2026-11-13
Olympiacos F.C. welcome AC Milan to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Piraeus in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Olympiacos F.C. have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. AC Milan have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Olympiacos F.C. 29%, the draw 29%, AC Milan 42%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympiacos F.C. 1.08, AC Milan 1.33.
- Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Olympiacos F.C.: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.78 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 17.5 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 75% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.43 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.7).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 53.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan: season averages side by side
| Olympiacos F.C. | Per match this season | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 0.3 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.43 |
| 17.5 | Shots | 12.5 |
| 3.8 | On target | 4.0 |
| 55.0 | Possession % | 53.8 |
| 75% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 0% |
| 7.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Davide Bartesaghi LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 74 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic, 28 · AC Milan · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61
Christian Pulisic, 28, plays as a winger for AC Milan in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 61
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 58
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.97 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 78% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.97 / 90 | 76% |
| Big chances created | 0.49 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected goals | 0.23 / 90 | 57% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
- What Christian Pulisic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Christian Pulisic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.08 for Olympiacos F.C. and 1.33 for AC Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 49%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Olympiacos F.C. 1-1 AC Milan
Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 42%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 57% by the model, 2.41 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan: questions and answers
When is Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan?
Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan played?
At Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus, Olympiacos F.C.'s home ground.
Who will win Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan?
It is close: Olympiacos F.C. 29%, draw 29%, AC Milan 42%. Our prediction is Olympiacos F.C. 1-1 AC Milan.
Who is the player to watch in Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan?
Christian Pulisic of AC Milan: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Olympiacos F.C. vs AC Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.