Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb · updated 2026-11-13
Dinamo Zagreb welcome Bayer 04 Leverkusen to Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Dinamo Zagreb have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Dinamo Zagreb 32%, the draw 26%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 42%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 1.34, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.56.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Dinamo Zagreb: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.61 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 43.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 75% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.82 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 20.5 a match, 9.0 on target.
- Possession: 59.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 75% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| Dinamo Zagreb | Per match this season | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.3 |
| 1.61 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.82 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 20.5 |
| 4.5 | On target | 9.0 |
| 43.8 | Possession % | 59.5 |
| 75% | Clean sheets % | 75% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 0% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 7.09 |
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 78 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Dribbler, High shot volume (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 77
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals, luck taken out and expected goals. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 77
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.77 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.71 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 4.47 / 90 | 94% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 86% |
| Key passes | 1.15 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.34 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.56 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 42%
- 2. 3 or more goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen played?
At Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb, Dinamo Zagreb's home ground.
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
It is close: Dinamo Zagreb 32%, draw 26%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 42%. Our prediction is Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.