Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim · updated 2026-11-13
Salzburg welcome Ararat-Armenia to Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Salzburg have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate. Ararat-Armenia have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Salzburg are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 23% and Ararat-Armenia at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Salzburg 1.96, Ararat-Armenia 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Salzburg: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.7).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 56.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Ararat-Armenia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.94 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.55.
Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia: season averages side by side
| Salzburg | Per match this season | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 3.5 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.94 |
| 15.0 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.7 |
| 56.6 | Possession % | 47.7 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.55 |
Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.96 for Salzburg and 1.26 for Ararat-Armenia - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 62%. Salzburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Salzburg 2-1 Ararat-Armenia
Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia: what the numbers say
- 1. Salzburg unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 62% by the model, 3.22 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia: questions and answers
When is Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia?
Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia played?
At Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim, Salzburg's home ground.
Who will win Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia?
Salzburg are the favourites: Salzburg 53%, draw 23%, Ararat-Armenia 24%. Our prediction is Salzburg 2-1 Ararat-Armenia.
How many goals will there be in Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.