Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stade Vélodrome, Marseille · updated 2026-11-13
Olympique Marseille welcome Levski Sofia to Stade Vélodrome in Marseille in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Olympique Marseille have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Levski Sofia have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympique Marseille are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 24% and Levski Sofia at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympique Marseille 1.82, Levski Sofia 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.89 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 53.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Levski Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 2.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia: season averages side by side
| Olympique Marseille | Per match this season | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 0.5 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 0.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.10 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 2.8 | On target | 2.5 |
| 53.8 | Possession % | 49.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Olympique Marseille
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Disciplined, Hard to dribble past (top 6% of his position)
- Timothy Weah RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nayef Aguerd
Nayef Aguerd, 30 · Olympique Marseille · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66
Nayef Aguerd, 30, plays as a centre-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in passes and aerial duels won. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 76.26 / 90 | 93% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.92 / 90 | 91% |
| Clearances | 6.93 / 90 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 1.18 / 90 | 73% |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★½ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
- ★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Dominant in the air, Box defender.
- What Nayef Aguerd is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Nayef Aguerd's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.82 for Olympique Marseille and 1.19 for Levski Sofia - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 59%. Olympique Marseille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Olympique Marseille 2-1 Levski Sofia
Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia: what the numbers say
- 1. Olympique Marseille unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 58% by the model, 3.01 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia: questions and answers
When is Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia played?
At Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Olympique Marseille's home ground.
Who will win Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Olympique Marseille are the favourites: Olympique Marseille 51%, draw 24%, Levski Sofia 24%. Our prediction is Olympique Marseille 2-1 Levski Sofia.
Who is the player to watch in Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Nayef Aguerd of Olympique Marseille: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Olympique Marseille vs Levski Sofia?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.