Chapecoense vs Palmeiras Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 37
Brasileirão · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapecó · updated 2026-11-13
Chapecoense welcome Palmeiras to Arena Condá in Chapecó in Brasileirão Gameweek 37 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
Chapecoense have played 33 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 12% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 16 matches, with a 75% win rate. Palmeiras have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 62% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 17 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Palmeiras are clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 20% and Chapecoense at 12%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chapecoense 0.79, Palmeiras 2.14.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (33 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Chapecoense: form and key numbers
In style Chapecoense are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.08 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 42.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Palmeiras: form and key numbers
In style Palmeiras press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +9.6).
- Shots: 15.5 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 47% of matches (56% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Chapecoense vs Palmeiras: season averages side by side
| Chapecoense | Per match this season | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.90 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 15.5 |
| 3.5 | On target | 5.3 |
| 42.5 | Possession % | 52.3 |
| 6% | Clean sheets % | 47% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Chapecoense
- Rafael Santos GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 16% of his position)
- Matheus Aurélio GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 54 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 16% of his position)
Palmeiras
- Vitor Roque CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 11% of his position)
- Emiliano Martínez DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 55 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bruno Pacheco
Bruno Pacheco, 34 · Chapecoense · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 54
Bruno Pacheco, 34, plays as a full-back for Chapecoense in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and successful dribbles. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 54
- LWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 0.75 / 90 | 87% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.89 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.11 / 90 | 72% |
| Duels won | 5.86 / 90 | 72% |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Dribbler.
- What Bruno Pacheco is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bruno Pacheco's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chapecoense vs Palmeiras prediction
Palmeiras should have more of the ball, with Chapecoense likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Chapecoense work the ball wide and cross; Palmeiras like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 0.79 for Chapecoense and 2.14 for Palmeiras - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 49%. Palmeiras have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Chapecoense 1-2 Palmeiras
Chapecoense vs Palmeiras: what the numbers say
- 1. Palmeiras win, the likeliest result 68% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.93 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 11.6 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Chapecoense vs Palmeiras: questions and answers
When is Chapecoense vs Palmeiras?
Chapecoense vs Palmeiras is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 37.
Where is Chapecoense vs Palmeiras played?
At Arena Condá, Chapecó, Chapecoense's home ground.
Who will win Chapecoense vs Palmeiras?
Palmeiras are the favourites: Chapecoense 12%, draw 20%, Palmeiras 68%. Our prediction is Chapecoense 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who is the player to watch in Chapecoense vs Palmeiras?
Bruno Pacheco of Chapecoense: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 54 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense vs Palmeiras?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.