Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 35
Brasileirão · Saturday 14 November 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol · updated 2026-10-31
Mirassol welcome Atlético Mineiro to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol in Brasileirão Gameweek 35 action on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Mirassol have played 33 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 27% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 78% win rate. Atlético Mineiro have played 33 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 42% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 16 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Mirassol 33%, the draw 26%, Atlético Mineiro 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Mirassol 1.31, Atlético Mineiro 1.50.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (33 and 33 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Mirassol: form and key numbers
In style Mirassol cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.4).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Atlético Mineiro: form and key numbers
In style Atlético Mineiro play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro: season averages side by side
| Mirassol | Per match this season | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Matches | 33 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | 1.40 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 4.3 | On target | 4.8 |
| 49.6 | Possession % | 48.8 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 48% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Mirassol
- Nathan Fogaça CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 18% of his position)
- Gabriel CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 7% of his position)
Atlético Mineiro
- Alexsander DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 59 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
- Everson GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tomás Cuello
Tomás Cuello, 26 · Atlético Mineiro · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61
Tomás Cuello, 26, plays as a winger for Atlético Mineiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 59
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.43 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.25 / 90 | 70% |
| Shots | 2.74 / 90 | 69% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.92 / 90 | 66% |
| Fouls won | 1.88 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
- What Tomás Cuello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tomás Cuello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro prediction
Mirassol should have more of the ball; Mirassol work the ball wide and cross; Atlético Mineiro like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.31 for Mirassol and 1.50 for Atlético Mineiro - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Mirassol 1-1 Atlético Mineiro
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.82 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 13.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Vitória Saturday 31 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Santos Monday 2 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Mirassol Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Internacional vs Coritiba Wednesday 4 November 2026
- Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama Wednesday 4 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Grêmio Wednesday 4 November 2026
- São Paulo vs Corinthians Thursday 5 November 2026
- Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro Thursday 5 November 2026
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro: questions and answers
When is Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro?
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro is on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 35.
Where is Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro played?
At Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, Mirassol's home ground.
Who will win Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro?
It is close: Mirassol 33%, draw 26%, Atlético Mineiro 41%. Our prediction is Mirassol 1-1 Atlético Mineiro.
Who is the player to watch in Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro?
Tomás Cuello of Atlético Mineiro: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.