Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 21
Brasileirão · Saturday 14 November 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapecó · updated 2026-11-01
Chapecoense welcome Vasco da Gama to Arena Condá in Chapecó in Brasileirão Gameweek 21 action on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
Chapecoense have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 75% win rate. Vasco da Gama have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 31% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Vasco da Gama are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 23% and Chapecoense at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.18, Vasco da Gama 1.91.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Chapecoense: form and key numbers
In style Chapecoense are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.09 a match created, 1.88 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 42.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Vasco da Gama: form and key numbers
In style Vasco da Gama keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: -15.3).
- Shots: 17.8 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama: season averages side by side
| Chapecoense | Per match this season | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 1.88 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 17.8 |
| 3.4 | On target | 5.3 |
| 42.3 | Possession % | 54.7 |
| 6% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 63% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Players to watch
Chapecoense
- Rafael Santos GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
- Matheus Aurélio GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 12% of his position)
Vasco da Gama
- Claudio Spinelli CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 66 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 11% of his position)
- Jair DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 66 · Secure passer, Press-resistant (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Cuiabano
Cuiabano, 23 · Vasco da Gama · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 67
Cuiabano, 23, plays as a wing-back for Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in duels won and tackles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 67
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.50 / 90 | 100% |
| Tackles | 3.74 / 90 | 99% |
| Interceptions | 1.98 / 90 | 96% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.36 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.12 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Ball-winner, Reads the game.
- What Cuiabano is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama prediction
Vasco da Gama should have more of the ball, with Chapecoense likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.18 for Chapecoense and 1.91 for Vasco da Gama - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 60%. Vasco da Gama have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Chapecoense 1-2 Vasco da Gama
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama: what the numbers say
- 1. Vasco da Gama unbeaten (win or draw) 77% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 60% by the model, 3.09 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Bragantino vs Santos Monday 2 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Mirassol Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Internacional vs Coritiba Wednesday 4 November 2026
- Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama Wednesday 4 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Grêmio Wednesday 4 November 2026
- São Paulo vs Corinthians Thursday 5 November 2026
- Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro Thursday 5 November 2026
- Palmeiras vs Remo Thursday 5 November 2026
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama: questions and answers
When is Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama is on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 21.
Where is Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama played?
At Arena Condá, Chapecó, Chapecoense's home ground.
Who will win Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
Vasco da Gama are the favourites: Chapecoense 23%, draw 23%, Vasco da Gama 54%. Our prediction is Chapecoense 1-2 Vasco da Gama.
Who is the player to watch in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
Cuiabano of Vasco da Gama: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.