Charlotte vs Chicago Fire Prediction and Stats
MLS · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte · updated 2026-11-14
Charlotte welcome Chicago Fire to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte in MLS action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Charlotte have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 67% win rate. Chicago Fire have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 47% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 17 matches, with a 44% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Charlotte 38%, the draw 23%, Chicago Fire 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Charlotte 1.80, Chicago Fire 1.84.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Charlotte: form and key numbers
In style Charlotte are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 2.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +12.0).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (71% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Chicago Fire: form and key numbers
In style Chicago Fire create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (43% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire: season averages side by side
| Charlotte | Per match this season | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 2.08 | xG conceded | 1.42 |
| 11.6 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 4.6 | On target | 5.2 |
| 46.3 | Possession % | 51.6 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 74% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Charlotte
- Kristijan Kahlina GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 51 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 6% of his position)
- Allan Saint-Maximin LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 46 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 13% of his position)
Chicago Fire
- Hugo Cuypers CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 1% of his position)
- Robert Lewandowski CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 33 · Takes high-quality shots, Rarely wastes a big chance (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Philip Zinckernagel
Philip Zinckernagel, 31 · Chicago Fire · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 49
Philip Zinckernagel, 31, plays as a winger for Chicago Fire in the MLS. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 49
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 48
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.08 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.41 / 90 | 83% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 73% |
| Big chances created | 0.55 / 90 | 73% |
| Key passes | 2.52 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Philip Zinckernagel is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Philip Zinckernagel's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire prediction
Chicago Fire should have more of the ball, with Charlotte likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Charlotte go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.80 for Charlotte and 1.84 for Chicago Fire - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 71%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Charlotte 2-2 Chicago Fire
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 3 or more goals 70% by the model, 3.63 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 11.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More MLS previews
- Orlando City vs Cincinnati Friday 20 November 2026
- Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake Friday 20 November 2026
- New England vs Philadelphia Union Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dallas vs Portland Timbers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Saturday 21 November 2026
- Nashville SC vs TBC Sunday 22 November 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Sunday 22 November 2026
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs TBC Monday 23 November 2026
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire: questions and answers
When is Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Charlotte vs Chicago Fire played?
At Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, Charlotte's home ground.
Who will win Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
It is close: Charlotte 38%, draw 23%, Chicago Fire 39%. Our prediction is Charlotte 2-2 Chicago Fire.
Who is the player to watch in Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Philip Zinckernagel of Chicago Fire: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.