Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Prediction and Stats
MLS · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Nu Stadium · updated 2026-11-13
Inter Miami welcome Columbus Crew to Nu Stadium in MLS action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Inter Miami have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 47% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 38% win rate. Columbus Crew have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 36% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Inter Miami are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 22% and Columbus Crew at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Inter Miami 2.15, Columbus Crew 1.56.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 70%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Inter Miami: form and key numbers
In style Inter Miami keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 1.74 conceded (goals minus xG: +16.0).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 56.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 76% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Columbus Crew: form and key numbers
In style Columbus Crew keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.7).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew: season averages side by side
| Inter Miami | Per match this season | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 2.4 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 |
| 1.74 | xG conceded | 1.54 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 5.9 | On target | 4.6 |
| 56.9 | Possession % | 54.8 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 76% | Both teams scored % | 68% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Inter Miami
- Yannick Bright DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 44 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
- Casemiro DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 43 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
Columbus Crew
- Dylan Chambost CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 45 · Long passer, Press-resistant (top 6% of his position)
- Taha Habroune CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 35 · Creator, Dribbler (top 20% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi, 39 · Inter Miami · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 56
Lionel Messi, 39, plays as a winger for Inter Miami in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 56
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 53
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6.18 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.78 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.39 / 90 | 85% |
| Key passes | 2.64 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator.
- What Lionel Messi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lionel Messi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew prediction
Inter Miami should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.15 for Inter Miami and 1.56 for Columbus Crew - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 70%. Inter Miami have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter Miami 3-1 Columbus Crew
Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew: what the numbers say
- 1. Inter Miami unbeaten (win or draw) 73% between them
- 2. 4 or more goals 51% by the model, 3.71 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew: questions and answers
When is Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew?
Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew played?
At Nu Stadium, Inter Miami's home ground.
Who will win Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew?
Inter Miami are the favourites: Inter Miami 51%, draw 22%, Columbus Crew 27%. Our prediction is Inter Miami 3-1 Columbus Crew.
Who is the player to watch in Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew?
Lionel Messi of Inter Miami: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.