Nashville SC vs TBC Prediction and Stats
MLS · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 21:00 UTC · GEODIS Park · updated 2026-11-13
Nashville SC welcome TBC to GEODIS Park in MLS action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
Nashville SC have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 68% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 65% win rate. TBC have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Nashville SC are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and TBC at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nashville SC 2.04, TBC 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 0 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Nashville SC: form and key numbers
In style Nashville SC keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: +14.3).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 54.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (47% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Nashville SC vs TBC: season averages side by side
| Nashville SC | Per match this season | TBC |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | – |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | – |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | – |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | – |
| 1.27 | xG conceded | – |
| 12.9 | Shots | – |
| 5.2 | On target | – |
| 54.3 | Possession % | – |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | – |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | – |
| 5.2 | Corners | – |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | – |
| 6.97 | Average rating | – |
Players to watch
Nashville SC
- Cristian Espinoza RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 40 · Crosser, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Brian Schwake GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 37 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 31% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sam Surridge
Sam Surridge, 28 · Nashville SC · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 44
Sam Surridge, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Nashville SC in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 44
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 99% |
| Shots on target | 57% | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.75 / 90 | 80% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.74 / 90 | 78% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.68 / 90 | 24% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Sam Surridge is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sam Surridge's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nashville SC vs TBC prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 2.04 for Nashville SC and 0.97 for TBC - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 55%. Nashville SC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Nashville SC 2-1 TBC
Nashville SC vs TBC: what the numbers say
- 1. Nashville SC win, the likeliest result 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 58% by the model, 3.01 goals expected
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More MLS previews
- Orlando City vs Cincinnati Friday 20 November 2026
- Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake Friday 20 November 2026
- New England vs Philadelphia Union Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dallas vs Portland Timbers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Saturday 21 November 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Sunday 22 November 2026
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs TBC Monday 23 November 2026
- St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC Tuesday 24 November 2026
Nashville SC vs TBC: questions and answers
When is Nashville SC vs TBC?
Nashville SC vs TBC is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Nashville SC vs TBC played?
At GEODIS Park, Nashville SC's home ground.
Who will win Nashville SC vs TBC?
Nashville SC are the favourites: Nashville SC 61%, draw 22%, TBC 17%. Our prediction is Nashville SC 2-1 TBC.
Who is the player to watch in Nashville SC vs TBC?
Sam Surridge of Nashville SC: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nashville SC vs TBC?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.