Dallas vs Portland Timbers Prediction and Stats
MLS · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Toyota Stadium, Frisco · updated 2026-11-13
Dallas welcome Portland Timbers to Toyota Stadium in Frisco in MLS action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
Dallas have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 47% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 17 matches, with a 56% win rate. Portland Timbers have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 31% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Dallas are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 24% and Portland Timbers at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Dallas 1.88, Portland Timbers 1.37.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Dallas: form and key numbers
In style Dallas are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.8).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 62% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Portland Timbers: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +10.3).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Dallas vs Portland Timbers: season averages side by side
| Dallas | Per match this season | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.40 | xG conceded | 1.43 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 4.8 | On target | 4.7 |
| 43.2 | Possession % | 50.3 |
| 24% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 62% | Both teams scored % | 74% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Dallas
- Santiago Moreno RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 40 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 24% of his position)
- Jonathan Sirois GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 32 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 40% of his position)
Portland Timbers
- Kristoffer Velde LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 8% of his position)
- Kevin Kelsy CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 40 · Takes high-quality shots, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Petar Musa
Petar Musa, 28 · Dallas · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52
Petar Musa, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Dallas in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 52
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 45
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 91% |
| Expected goals | 0.81 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots on target | 50% | 85% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.75 / 90 | 78% |
| Shots | 4.15 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions, Accurate shooter.
- What Petar Musa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Petar Musa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Dallas vs Portland Timbers prediction
Portland Timbers should have more of the ball, with Dallas likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Dallas go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.88 for Dallas and 1.37 for Portland Timbers - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 64%. Dallas have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers
Dallas vs Portland Timbers: what the numbers say
- 1. Dallas unbeaten (win or draw) 73% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.24 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Dallas vs Portland Timbers: questions and answers
When is Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Dallas vs Portland Timbers is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Dallas vs Portland Timbers played?
At Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Dallas's home ground.
Who will win Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Dallas are the favourites: Dallas 49%, draw 24%, Portland Timbers 27%. Our prediction is Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers.
Who is the player to watch in Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Petar Musa of Dallas: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 52 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.