Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami Prediction and Stats
MLS · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Lower.com Field · updated 2026-11-14
Columbus Crew welcome Inter Miami to Lower.com Field in MLS action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
Columbus Crew have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 41% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 64% win rate. Inter Miami have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 47% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 17 matches, with a 63% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Columbus Crew 41%, the draw 23%, Inter Miami 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Columbus Crew 1.88, Inter Miami 1.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Columbus Crew: form and key numbers
In style Columbus Crew keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.7).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Inter Miami: form and key numbers
In style Inter Miami keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 1.74 conceded (goals minus xG: +15.8).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 56.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 76% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami: season averages side by side
| Columbus Crew | Per match this season | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 2.4 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.74 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 4.6 | On target | 5.9 |
| 54.8 | Possession % | 56.9 |
| 24% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 76% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Columbus Crew
- Dylan Chambost CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 45 · Long passer, Press-resistant (top 6% of his position)
- Santiago Rodríguez AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 32 · Draws fouls, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Inter Miami
- Yannick Bright DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 44 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
- Casemiro DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 43 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi, 39 · Inter Miami · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 56
Lionel Messi, 39, plays as a winger for Inter Miami in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 56
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 53
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6.18 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.78 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.39 / 90 | 85% |
| Key passes | 2.64 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator.
- What Lionel Messi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lionel Messi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami prediction
Inter Miami should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.88 for Columbus Crew and 1.78 for Inter Miami - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 71%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Columbus Crew 2-2 Inter Miami
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 3 or more goals 71% by the model, 3.67 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More MLS previews
- Orlando City vs Cincinnati Friday 20 November 2026
- Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake Friday 20 November 2026
- New England vs Philadelphia Union Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dallas vs Portland Timbers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Saturday 21 November 2026
- Nashville SC vs TBC Sunday 22 November 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Sunday 22 November 2026
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs TBC Monday 23 November 2026
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami: questions and answers
When is Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami?
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 01:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami played?
At Lower.com Field, Columbus Crew's home ground.
Who will win Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami?
It is close: Columbus Crew 41%, draw 23%, Inter Miami 37%. Our prediction is Columbus Crew 2-2 Inter Miami.
Who is the player to watch in Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami?
Lionel Messi of Inter Miami: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.