Como vs Manchester United: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como · updated 2026-10-09
Como host Manchester United in the Champions League on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Como slight favourites at 43%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Como 1.77, Manchester United 1.53.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Assane Diao
Assane Diao, 21 · Como · LWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Assane Diao as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 51).
- Key passes: 3.46 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Expected assists (est.): 0.38 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wingers
- Successful dribbles: 2.93 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of wingers
Manchester United concede 1.6 goals a match this season (1.04 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a creative winger like Assane Diao.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Como | Per match this season | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 1.68 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 23.4 | Shots | 22.6 |
| 7.2 | On target | 5.6 |
| 61.6 | Possession % | 59.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 8.0 | Corners | 7.2 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 7.02 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Como in its domestic league; Manchester United in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Como
- Nico Paz midfielder · rating 7.67 · 5 apps
- Assane Diao midfielder · rating 7.43 · 5 apps
- Lucas Da Cunha midfielder · rating 7.19 · 5 apps
Manchester United
- Bruno Fernandes midfielder · rating 7.67 · 5 apps
- Matheus Cunha forward · rating 7.27 · 5 apps
- Kobbie Mainoo midfielder · rating 7.19 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
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- Lens vs Sporting CP Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Galatasaray vs FC Barcelona Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Napoli Tuesday 13 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.