Corinthians vs Grêmio Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 37
Brasileirão · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Arena Corinthians, São Paulo · updated 2026-11-15
Corinthians welcome Grêmio to Arena Corinthians in São Paulo in Brasileirão Gameweek 37 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Corinthians have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 17 matches, with a 67% win rate. Grêmio have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 11% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Corinthians are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 28% and Grêmio at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Corinthians 1.45, Grêmio 0.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Corinthians: form and key numbers
In style Corinthians keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 35% of matches (58% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Grêmio: form and key numbers
In style Grêmio play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.93 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Corinthians vs Grêmio: season averages side by side
| Corinthians | Per match this season | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| 1.35 | xG conceded | 1.93 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 4.0 | On target | 3.8 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 49.1 |
| 35% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 59% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Corinthians
- Fabrizio Angileri LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
- Kauê GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 50 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 26% of his position)
Grêmio
Scouting spotlight: Kaio César
Kaio César, 22 · Corinthians · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 50
Kaio César, 22, plays as a winger for Corinthians in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and successful dribbles. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 50
- LW · Winger Competent, 30
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.49 / 90 | 99% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.42 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.25 / 90 | 48% |
| Shots | 2.53 / 90 | 46% |
| Key passes | 1.71 / 90 | 42% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Dribbler.
- What Kaio César is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kaio César's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Corinthians vs Grêmio prediction
Corinthians should have more of the ball, with Grêmio likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Corinthians work the ball wide and cross; Grêmio go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.45 for Corinthians and 0.99 for Grêmio - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 49%. Corinthians have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Corinthians 2-0 Grêmio
Corinthians vs Grêmio: what the numbers say
- 1. Corinthians unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 56% by the model, 2.43 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 16.4 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Internacional Thursday 19 November 2026
Corinthians vs Grêmio: questions and answers
When is Corinthians vs Grêmio?
Corinthians vs Grêmio is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 37.
Where is Corinthians vs Grêmio played?
At Arena Corinthians, São Paulo, Corinthians's home ground.
Who will win Corinthians vs Grêmio?
Corinthians are the favourites: Corinthians 47%, draw 28%, Grêmio 25%. Our prediction is Corinthians 2-0 Grêmio.
Who is the player to watch in Corinthians vs Grêmio?
Kaio César of Corinthians: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Grêmio?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.