Coritiba vs Flamengo Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 37
Brasileirão · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba · updated 2026-11-15
Coritiba welcome Flamengo to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba in Brasileirão Gameweek 37 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Coritiba have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 17 matches, with a 55% win rate. Flamengo have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 68% of them. Away from home they average 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Flamengo are clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 22% and Coritiba at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Coritiba 0.90, Flamengo 2.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Coritiba: form and key numbers
In style Coritiba are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.09 a match created, 1.74 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 40.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (43% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 10.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Flamengo: form and key numbers
In style Flamengo keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.78 a match created, 0.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +10.4).
- Shots: 16.1 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 41% of matches (43% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Coritiba vs Flamengo: season averages side by side
| Coritiba | Per match this season | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.78 |
| 1.74 | xG conceded | 0.95 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 16.1 |
| 3.4 | On target | 5.8 |
| 40.4 | Possession % | 57.0 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 41% |
| 47% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 3.9 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Players to watch
Coritiba
- Rodrigo Moledo CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 54 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 12% of his position)
- Pedro Morisco GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 53 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
Flamengo
- Samuel Lino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Giorgian de Arrascaeta AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 58 · Chance creator, Creator (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jorge Carrascal
Jorge Carrascal, 28 · Flamengo · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 70
Jorge Carrascal, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Flamengo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 70
- RW · Winger Natural, 70
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.85 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 3.36 / 90 | 90% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.89 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.38 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Jorge Carrascal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jorge Carrascal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Coritiba vs Flamengo prediction
Flamengo should have more of the ball, with Coritiba likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Coritiba go long and direct; Flamengo work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 0.90 for Coritiba and 2.03 for Flamengo - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 52%. Flamengo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Coritiba 1-2 Flamengo
Coritiba vs Flamengo: what the numbers say
- 1. Flamengo win, the likeliest result 63% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.93 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 20.9 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Internacional Thursday 19 November 2026
Coritiba vs Flamengo: questions and answers
When is Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Coritiba vs Flamengo is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 37.
Where is Coritiba vs Flamengo played?
At Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, Coritiba's home ground.
Who will win Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Flamengo are the favourites: Coritiba 15%, draw 22%, Flamengo 63%. Our prediction is Coritiba 1-2 Flamengo.
Who is the player to watch in Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Jorge Carrascal of Flamengo: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.