Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 8
Premier League · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Selhurst Park, London · updated 2026-10-11
Crystal Palace welcome Newcastle United to Selhurst Park in London in Premier League Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Crystal Palace have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Newcastle United have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Crystal Palace 37%, the draw 24%, Newcastle United 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.65, Newcastle United 1.69.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Crystal Palace: form and key numbers
In style Crystal Palace are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.08 a match created, 2.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Newcastle United: form and key numbers
In style Newcastle United are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.9).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 49.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: season averages side by side
| Crystal Palace | Per match this season | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.03 |
| 2.25 | xG conceded | 1.98 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 3.6 | On target | 3.6 |
| 43.4 | Possession % | 49.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 2.4 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Crystal Palace
- Dean Henderson GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 11% of his position)
- Yéremy Pino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 8% of his position)
Newcastle United
- Amar Dedic RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Hard to dribble past, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
- Lewis Hall LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sven Botman
Sven Botman, 26 · Newcastle United · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64
Sven Botman, 26, plays as a centre-back for Newcastle United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in clearances and blocked shots. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 64
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 8.20 / 90 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 1.60 / 90 | 95% |
| Fouls committed | 0.40 / 90 | 89% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.40 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 5.20 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Box defender, Blocks shots, Disciplined.
- What Sven Botman is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sven Botman's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United prediction
Newcastle United should have more of the ball, with Crystal Palace likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Newcastle United are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.65 for Crystal Palace and 1.69 for Newcastle United - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 66%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.34 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Arsenal vs Everton Saturday 24 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 24 October 2026
- Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth Sunday 25 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 25 October 2026
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: questions and answers
When is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 8.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United played?
At Selhurst Park, London, Crystal Palace's home ground.
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
It is close: Crystal Palace 37%, draw 24%, Newcastle United 39%. Our prediction is Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United.
Who is the player to watch in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
Sven Botman of Newcastle United: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.