St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC Prediction and Stats
MLS · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Energizer Park · updated 2026-11-13
St. Louis City welcome Los Angeles FC to Energizer Park in MLS action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
St. Louis City have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 17 matches, with a 60% win rate. Los Angeles FC have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: St. Louis City 40%, the draw 27%, Los Angeles FC 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.44, Los Angeles FC 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
St. Louis City: form and key numbers
In style St. Louis City keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.0).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 52.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Los Angeles FC: form and key numbers
In style Los Angeles FC press high.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 15.1 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC: season averages side by side
| St. Louis City | Per match this season | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.35 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 15.1 |
| 4.8 | On target | 4.9 |
| 52.6 | Possession % | 47.1 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 38% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
St. Louis City
- Carlo Holse AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 39 · Big-chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 18% of his position)
- Fallou Fall CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 32 · Ball-winner, Blocks shots (top 28% of his position)
Los Angeles FC
- Leo Walta AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 35 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 32% of his position)
- Heung-min Son LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 35 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 21% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Denis Bouanga
Denis Bouanga, 32 · Los Angeles FC · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 37
Denis Bouanga, 32, plays as a winger for Los Angeles FC in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 37
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 34
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 28
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.43 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots | 3.31 / 90 | 58% |
| Big chances created | 0.39 / 90 | 50% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.85 / 90 | 46% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.03 / 90 | 44% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions.
- What Denis Bouanga is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Denis Bouanga's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC prediction
St. Louis City should have more of the ball, with Los Angeles FC likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Los Angeles FC press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.44 for St. Louis City and 1.27 for Los Angeles FC - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: St. Louis City 1-1 Los Angeles FC
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More MLS previews
- Orlando City vs Cincinnati Friday 20 November 2026
- Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake Friday 20 November 2026
- New England vs Philadelphia Union Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dallas vs Portland Timbers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Saturday 21 November 2026
- Nashville SC vs TBC Sunday 22 November 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Sunday 22 November 2026
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs TBC Monday 23 November 2026
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC: questions and answers
When is St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC?
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 01:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC played?
At Energizer Park, St. Louis City's home ground.
Who will win St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC?
It is close: St. Louis City 40%, draw 27%, Los Angeles FC 33%. Our prediction is St. Louis City 1-1 Los Angeles FC.
Who is the player to watch in St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC?
Denis Bouanga of Los Angeles FC: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 37 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.