Racing Santander vs Valencia: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander · updated 2026-10-09
Racing Santander host Valencia in La Liga on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Racing Santander favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.77, Valencia 1.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Yassir Zabiri
Yassir Zabiri, 21 · Racing Santander · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Yassir Zabiri as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 68, defensive 46).
- Goals: 1.40 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of centre-forwards
- Big chances missed: 0.00 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of centre-forwards
- Expected goals: 0.72 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of centre-forwards
Valencia concede 1.9 goals a match this season (1.59 expected), more than the league's average: the space a poacher like Yassir Zabiri lives on.
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Rarely wastes a big chance, Gets into scoring positions.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Racing Santander | Per match this season | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.6 |
| 3.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.92 |
| 2.20 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 4.0 | On target | 2.7 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 47.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 29% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 6.63 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Racing Santander
- Yassir Zabiri forward · rating 7.27 · 7 apps
- Andrés Martín midfielder · rating 7.01 · 3 apps
- Julen Agirrezabala goalkeeper · rating 6.98 · 7 apps
Valencia
- Aaron Ndive Mayol de la Cueva midfielder · rating 7.05 · 2 apps
- Guido Rodríguez midfielder · rating 7.02 · 4 apps
- Arnaut Danjuma midfielder · rating 6.75 · 7 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Elche Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.