Levante vs Sevilla: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Monday 12 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia · updated 2026-10-09
Levante host Sevilla in La Liga on Monday 12 October 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Sevilla slight favourites at 37%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.8 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Levante 1.41, Sevilla 1.44.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi, 34 · Levante · CB · Ball-playing centre-back
Moneyball Scout picks Aïssa Mandi as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 48, defensive 60).
- Dribbled past: 0.00 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of centre-backs
- Fouls committed: 0.35 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of centre-backs
- Pass accuracy: 93%, better than 88% of centre-backs
Sevilla score 1.4 goals a match this season from 1.06 expected: stopping them runs through Aïssa Mandi.
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Disciplined, Secure passer.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Levante | Per match this season | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | 1.43 |
| 10.7 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 3.7 | On target | 4.1 |
| 40.0 | Possession % | 42.0 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Levante
- Mathew Ryan goalkeeper · rating 7.10 · 6 apps
- Roger Brugué forward · rating 7.05 · 5 apps
- Jon Ander Olasagasti midfielder · rating 6.92 · 6 apps
Sevilla
- Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega midfielder · rating 7.04 · 7 apps
- Lucien Agoumé midfielder · rating 6.98 · 7 apps
- Juan Iglesias defender · rating 6.94 · 7 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Elche Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.