Real Betis vs Osasuna: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla, Sevilla · updated 2026-10-09
Real Betis host Osasuna in La Liga on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Real Betis favourites at 52%, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Real Betis 1.68, Osasuna 1.00.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Target man
Moneyball Scout picks Ante Budimir as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 45, defensive 62).
- Duels won: 8.61 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of centre-forwards
- Shot quality (xG per shot): 0.25 xG per shot, better than 96% of centre-forwards
- Expected goals: 0.82 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of centre-forwards
Real Betis concede 1.0 goals a match this season (1.64 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a target man like Ante Budimir.
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Real Betis | Per match this season | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 |
| 1.64 | xG conceded | 1.35 |
| 17.4 | Shots | 9.3 |
| 6.4 | On target | 3.9 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 45.6 |
| 57% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 7.03 | Average rating | 6.64 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Real Betis
- Álvaro Valles goalkeeper · rating 7.59 · 7 apps
- Marc Bartra defender · rating 7.38 · 5 apps
- Valentín Gómez defender · rating 7.35 · 3 apps
Osasuna
- Ante Budimir forward · rating 7.35 · 7 apps
- Aitor Fernández goalkeeper · rating 6.92 · 2 apps
- Moi Gómez midfielder · rating 6.89 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Elche Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.