Derby County vs Watford Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 18
Championship · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Pride Park Stadium, Derby · updated 2026-11-14
Derby County welcome Watford to Pride Park Stadium in Derby in Championship Gameweek 18 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Derby County have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 8 matches, with a 50% win rate. Watford have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Derby County 38%, the draw 28%, Watford 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Derby County 1.35, Watford 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Derby County: form and key numbers
In style Derby County play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 2.10 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.7).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 7% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Watford: form and key numbers
In style Watford are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.81 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 45.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Derby County vs Watford: season averages side by side
| Derby County | Per match this season | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 2.10 | xG conceded | 1.81 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 12.1 |
| 3.8 | On target | 3.8 |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 45.1 |
| 7% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 47% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
Derby County
- Jacob Widell Zetterström GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 45 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 31% of his position)
- David Ozoh DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 36 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 9% of his position)
Watford
- Federico Ravaglia GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 44 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Jordan Zemura LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 39 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 22% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Joe Ward
Joe Ward, 31 · Derby County · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 50
Joe Ward, 31, plays as a wide midfielder for Derby County in the Championship. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and dispossessed. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 50
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 50
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 47
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.02 / 90 | 90% |
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 90% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.28 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 52% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Press-resistant, Reads the game.
- What Joe Ward is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Derby County vs Watford prediction
Derby County should have more of the ball; Derby County are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Watford like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.35 for Derby County and 1.26 for Watford - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Derby County 1-1 Watford
Derby County vs Watford: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.62 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
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- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026
Derby County vs Watford: questions and answers
When is Derby County vs Watford?
Derby County vs Watford is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 18.
Where is Derby County vs Watford played?
At Pride Park Stadium, Derby, Derby County's home ground.
Who will win Derby County vs Watford?
It is close: Derby County 38%, draw 28%, Watford 34%. Our prediction is Derby County 1-1 Watford.
Who is the player to watch in Derby County vs Watford?
Joe Ward of Derby County: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Derby County vs Watford?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.