Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe Prediction and Stats | Süper Lig Gameweek 12
Süper Lig · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 10:30 UTC · Kazım Karabekir Stadı Yani 2 Nolu Sentetik Çim Sahası, Erzurum · updated 2026-11-13
Erzurumspor FK welcome Göztepe to Kazım Karabekir Stadı Yani 2 Nolu Sentetik Çim Sahası in Erzurum in Süper Lig Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 10:30 UTC.
Erzurumspor FK have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 36% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate. Göztepe have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Göztepe are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 25% and Erzurumspor FK at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Erzurumspor FK 1.28, Göztepe 1.68.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Erzurumspor FK: form and key numbers
In style Erzurumspor FK are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.85 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 43.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Göztepe: form and key numbers
In style Göztepe are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.87 a match created, 1.74 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 40.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe: season averages side by side
| Erzurumspor FK | Per match this season | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 0.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.87 |
| 1.52 | xG conceded | 1.74 |
| 9.8 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 3.0 | On target | 5.6 |
| 43.0 | Possession % | 40.4 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 36% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 3.4 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Erzurumspor FK
- Orhan Ovacıklı RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Crosser, Creator (top 23% of his position)
- Mustafa Fettahoğlu LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 28 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 39% of his position)
Göztepe
- André Henrique CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 46 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 6% of his position)
- Rhaldney CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 38 · Reads the game, Creator (top 22% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Juan
Juan, 24 · Göztepe · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 54
Juan, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Göztepe in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 54
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 96% |
| Shots on target | 55% | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.03 / 90 | 79% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.68 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected goals | 0.62 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Juan is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe prediction
Erzurumspor FK should have more of the ball; Erzurumspor FK go long and direct; Göztepe are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.28 for Erzurumspor FK and 1.68 for Göztepe - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 59%. Göztepe have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Göztepe
Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe: what the numbers say
- 1. Göztepe unbeaten (win or draw) 71% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 57% by the model, 2.96 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Sunday 22 November 2026
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Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe: questions and answers
When is Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 10:30 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 12.
Where is Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe played?
At Kazım Karabekir Stadı Yani 2 Nolu Sentetik Çim Sahası, Erzurum, Erzurumspor FK's home ground.
Who will win Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Göztepe are the favourites: Erzurumspor FK 29%, draw 25%, Göztepe 46%. Our prediction is Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Göztepe.
Who is the player to watch in Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Juan of Göztepe: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 54 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.