Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction and Stats | Süper Lig Gameweek 12
Süper Lig · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 16:00 UTC · İsmetpaşa Stadyumu, İzmit · updated 2026-11-13
Kocaelispor welcome Fenerbahçe to İsmetpaşa Stadyumu in İzmit in Süper Lig Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Kocaelispor have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 55% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Fenerbahçe have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 55% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fenerbahçe are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Kocaelispor at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Kocaelispor 1.08, Fenerbahçe 1.64.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Kocaelispor: form and key numbers
In style Kocaelispor play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.17 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 48.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Fenerbahçe: form and key numbers
In style Fenerbahçe keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.09 a match created, 1.19 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.0).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 55% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe: season averages side by side
| Kocaelispor | Per match this season | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 2.6 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.17 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.09 |
| 1.56 | xG conceded | 1.19 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 16.3 |
| 4.5 | On target | 6.6 |
| 48.9 | Possession % | 55.4 |
| 45% | Clean sheets % | 55% |
| 36% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 7.02 |
Players to watch
Kocaelispor
- Emir Ortakaya CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 44 · Dominant in the air, Reads the game (top 18% of his position)
- Serhat Öztaşdelen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 40 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 49% of his position)
Fenerbahçe
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 46 · Press-resistant, Big-chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Oğuz Aydın LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 44 · Press-resistant, High shot volume (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi, 32 · Fenerbahçe · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57
Vedat Muriqi, 32, plays as a centre-forward for Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 57
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 57% | 100% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 82% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.79 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 74% |
| Shots | 4.00 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.7 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Vedat Muriqi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vedat Muriqi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe prediction
Fenerbahçe should have more of the ball, with Kocaelispor likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Kocaelispor go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.08 for Kocaelispor and 1.64 for Fenerbahçe - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 54%. Fenerbahçe have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Kocaelispor 1-2 Fenerbahçe
Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe: what the numbers say
- 1. Fenerbahçe unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.72 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.9 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe Sunday 22 November 2026
- Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Sunday 22 November 2026
- Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Sunday 22 November 2026
- Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor Sunday 22 November 2026
- İstanbul Başakşehir vs Çorum FK Monday 23 November 2026
Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe: questions and answers
When is Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 12.
Where is Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe played?
At İsmetpaşa Stadyumu, İzmit, Kocaelispor's home ground.
Who will win Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe are the favourites: Kocaelispor 24%, draw 26%, Fenerbahçe 50%. Our prediction is Kocaelispor 1-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who is the player to watch in Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Vedat Muriqi of Fenerbahçe: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 57 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.