Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Prediction and Stats | Süper Lig Gameweek 12
Süper Lig · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul · updated 2026-11-13
Kasımpaşa welcome Alanyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul in Süper Lig Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Kasımpaşa have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 45% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 20% win rate. Alanyaspor have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Kasımpaşa are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 25% and Alanyaspor at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Kasımpaşa 1.73, Alanyaspor 0.81.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Kasımpaşa: form and key numbers
In style Kasımpaşa are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.23 a match created, 1.21 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.5).
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 42.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Alanyaspor: form and key numbers
In style Alanyaspor are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 44.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor: season averages side by side
| Kasımpaşa | Per match this season | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| 1.21 | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 12.7 | Shots | 11.6 |
| 4.3 | On target | 3.4 |
| 42.4 | Possession % | 44.5 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Kasımpaşa
- Haris Hajradinovic AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 42 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
- Andreas Gianniotis GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 40 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 35% of his position)
Alanyaspor
- Paulo Victor GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 33 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 59% of his position)
- Maestro DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 26 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 36% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florent Hadergjonaj
Florent Hadergjonaj, 32 · Alanyaspor · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 43
Florent Hadergjonaj, 32, plays as a wide midfielder for Alanyaspor in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 43
- RB · Full-back Natural, 41
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.73 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 3.27 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.39 / 90 | 95% |
| Dispossessed | 0.27 / 90 | 95% |
| Interceptions | 0.36 / 90 | 5% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Florent Hadergjonaj is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florent Hadergjonaj's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor prediction
Alanyaspor should have more of the ball; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.73 for Kasımpaşa and 0.81 for Alanyaspor - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 46%. Kasımpaşa have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor: what the numbers say
- 1. Kasımpaşa win, the likeliest result 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 53% by the model, 2.54 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor: questions and answers
When is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 12.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor played?
At Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul, Kasımpaşa's home ground.
Who will win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa are the favourites: Kasımpaşa 58%, draw 25%, Alanyaspor 17%. Our prediction is Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who is the player to watch in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Florent Hadergjonaj of Alanyaspor: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 43 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.