Excelsior vs Telstar Prediction and Stats | Eredivisie Gameweek 14
Eredivisie · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam · updated 2026-11-14
Excelsior welcome Telstar to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam in Eredivisie Gameweek 14 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Excelsior have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 3.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 33% win rate. Telstar have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Excelsior 40%, the draw 25%, Telstar 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Excelsior 1.66, Telstar 1.55.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Excelsior: form and key numbers
In style Excelsior are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 10.1 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 42.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Telstar: form and key numbers
In style Telstar are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 2.07 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Excelsior vs Telstar: season averages side by side
| Excelsior | Per match this season | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | 2.07 |
| 10.1 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 3.3 | On target | 3.8 |
| 42.4 | Possession % | 45.8 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 8% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Excelsior
- Casper Widell CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 30 · Dominant in the air, Blocks shots (top 18% of his position)
- Irakli Yegoian AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 24 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 36% of his position)
Telstar
- Ronald Koeman Jr. GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 32 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 5% of his position)
- Noach Shenkman DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 32 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Abdelnour Soualhia
Abdelnour Soualhia, 25 · Telstar · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 33
Abdelnour Soualhia, 25, plays as a centre-back for Telstar in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 33
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 3.50 / 90 | 71% |
| Duels won | 7.00 / 90 | 71% |
| Interceptions | 1.83 / 90 | 57% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 50% |
| Clearances | 6.75 / 90 | 41% |
Roles he suits
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- What Abdelnour Soualhia is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Abdelnour Soualhia's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Excelsior vs Telstar prediction
Telstar should have more of the ball; Excelsior are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Telstar go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.66 for Excelsior and 1.55 for Telstar - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 64%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Excelsior 1-1 Telstar
Excelsior vs Telstar: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 3 or more goals 62% by the model, 3.21 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Eredivisie previews
- NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Saturday 21 November 2026
- Feyenoord vs Excelsior Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur Saturday 21 November 2026
- Telstar vs PEC Zwolle Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Twente vs Willem II Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Ajax vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 22 November 2026
Excelsior vs Telstar: questions and answers
When is Excelsior vs Telstar?
Excelsior vs Telstar is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 14.
Where is Excelsior vs Telstar played?
At Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam, Excelsior's home ground.
Who will win Excelsior vs Telstar?
It is close: Excelsior 40%, draw 25%, Telstar 35%. Our prediction is Excelsior 1-1 Telstar.
Who is the player to watch in Excelsior vs Telstar?
Abdelnour Soualhia of Telstar: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 33 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs Telstar?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.